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    moncler vendita So you see banks do not give small and medium enterprises

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    发表于 2017-2-10 10:33:52 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
    Yao Yang: China's economy into the fall of 2012 is now in the bottom of the recession
            
    Press: 2016, China's private investment style cliff fall. What is the reason for the decline? How to deal with? Phoenix FINANCE interview with the National Development Research Institute of Peking University Professor Yao Yang.
    Phoenix Finance: This year cliff-style Chinese private investment decline, Statistics Show 1 to May fixed asset investment grew by 3% points. There are reports that in May and June the growth rate of private investment may have been a zero. What factors do you think the lack of investor confidence in the future of civil, not investing? What is the core of a factor?
     
    Yao Yang: I think private investment growth rate declined, the most important reason is the economic cycle at work. We are now at the bottom of an economic cycle, we have to admit we do not have the economic cycle, this is a big problem. How can an economy without economic cycle?
     
    China since 1992 to the present, there are two large cycles, small four cycle wave down and then go up and then down. The first is on the rise from 1992 to 1997, Deng Xiaoping's southern tour to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, there is a rapid growth in 1998 to 2003, deflation, recession, recession was China, there is a certain growth, but significant recession, deflation. The end of 2003. In 2004, we began a new wave of growth in this wave of growth a little bit longer duration. Originally in 2009 should fall down, because the financial crisis in 2008, but four trillion let us extend the time, has been extended to 2010, it began to decline in 2010, after 2012,woolrich uomo parka, we began to decline significantly, deflation. From 2012 we are probably entering a period of decline, is now at the bottom of the recession.
     
    Basically our period is seven years,louboutin pigalle prix boutique, seven years a small period, fourteen years is a big cycle, basically. So we realize that this is very, very important, and why? Realize that this is a short-term situation, you can not take a long-term approach to governance. I think we always mix the short and long term, so,cartier occhiali da sole, it does not look for the old, for example, we now send to the steering group supervision, supervision of bank lending, you do not put out, people will not borrow money, he is not coming confidence.
     
    Private investment problems, anxieties Donghonghong to supervision, supervision around you, if these banks are forced upon them money to private enterprises, will appear 4 trillion, then this is the 4 trillion, including Wenzhou, Wenzhou actually occurred the financial crisis, a lot of the boss on foot, in fact, the financial crisis thing. The boss said that I did not want to invest ah, you go to the bank in front of me, you have to vote, I'll give you how much money owners also do not understand the whole, since the Government to allow us to vote, the right to vote,hogan scontate, and finally proceeded to lose . We can not forget this thing.
     
    So you see banks do not give small and medium enterprises, do not give loans to private enterprises, which is a long-term thing, not to say that until this year, and it is such a long time. So you want to take a long-term approach to the problem of how short-term treatment we can do it? You have to find a way to short-term, short-term approach to what is it? In the present situation, folk are reluctant to invest, and the investment of state-owned enterprises are basically wasteful, the consumer can not be rapid growth, if it rapid growth, it is the accumulation of debt, what zero down payment, do these things, which there is a certain degree of risk.
     
    The only option is to increase government leverage, government deficit and then expand it. In this critical time, 3% is too low, I think the short extended to 5% to 6%, not to say that our long-term 5% to 6%, so that the local government issued bonds. Then Treasury can do two things, one is the local government investment, on the other hand local governments to purchase excess inventory, our real estate inventory so many local governments to buy, buy in, people come in to buy and sell cheap . There are so many people need to improve housing.
     
    Prime Minister Li Keqiang three one hundred million, one hundred million people have tenancy city, since he had a residence, then you give him shelter. There Reconstruction in one hundred million shanty towns, in need of housing. There are one hundred million new migrant population urbanization,escarpin louboutin pas cher, also in need of housing. I do not believe that we put this three hundred million people here, our house is really a surplus? Less likely to have surplus! Your seven hundred million stock divided by 300 million in just two square meters per capita, how could you have excess inventory it? This is unlikely. This is a key structural problems, structural problems of how to solve it? Shop and go to the government, which is anyway the whole society money, just to do some re-distribution, who will bear the costs? Future children born to bear.
     
    Phoenix Finance: Stock many of which are in the four-tier cities, but people have to run cities, and cities actually not much inventory.
     
    Yao Yang: What do you give people some incentive,chaussures louboutin, four-tier cities housing is cheaper to sell it to you, now local governments to pressure developers tickets you make a sale? Developers in order to get out of trouble might sell. Because now the prices are artificially high, they are now local governments allow them to cut prices because the price may be a come down we will buy.
     
    Phoenix Finance: local governments to suppress the real estate business will allow to reduce real estate prices? This will affect government revenue,moncler outlet online shop.
     
    Yao Yang: You now carry longer there, just now you did not give him any incentive to do this thing. Now it is to allow developers to reduce the price, the time to look good on the face. If you allow the government to issue bonds to give him a sum of money to let him buy it, then the people of the city, pushing up the consumer, I think the enthusiasm of the local governments there.
     
    And you just said, these young people do not want to go back to the first-tier cities, you have the motivation, there may be some people willing to go back. In fact, some four-tier cities is not to say all in underdeveloped areas, coastal you have three or four lines, that is, for example,louboutin pas cher, from Shanghai to Jiaxing,chaussures de running, Jiaxing may have remaining, I went to Jiaxing is also very good, we believe the margin will adjust. This is the economics here to spend, we generally think of these people will not leave the old first-tier cities, and that the vast majority will not leave, but people at the margin will leave.
     
    Phoenix Finance: there will certainly be,woolrich outlet, but do not know how many of proportion.
     
    Yao Yang: And we do not expect people to go back to first-tier cities, second and third tier cities, there are so many people do you want to urbanization, there are so many shantytowns to transform it, including Beijing still does shantytowns, where there is a potential head to be tapped.
     
    Phoenix Finance: Just now you said that China has several economic cycles, wherein each cycle of rapid economic development are all internal and external reform initiatives, such as the 1992 trip to the south end of the century and the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2003 to join WTO. We currently do not seem to find a single new momentum, you think we should start from where to?
     
    Yao Yang: We Chinese people old Ai Tishi it develop new impetus to an economist, the word itself is a bit ridiculous. US new impetus Where? Fluctuations in the US economy for so many years, you have to say what a new impetus? This is the economic cycle, economic cycle itself there, right? Our country's per capita income is still so low, more than 8000 US dollars, you say we stalled? Not power up? how can that be possible? This is unlikely. We have a lot of areas you can go to open up, let me say that you want a non-power, then urbanization, which in itself is a motivation.
     
    Phoenix Finance: economic growth, it needs some reform measures,chaussure tn, such as lower income before the reform and opening up, but that is not to develop, the need to reform the economic vitality released.
     
    Yao Yang: That is not necessarily,louboutin pas cher pour homm, you said the United States to change what? It did not have to change, it is still not still develop it? It is driven by technological advances, there is a 2% annual growth. Of course, it has peaks troughs,hogan outlet sito ufficiale, down 2% on average, is around 2% volatility. China does,air max 90 pas cher, are not only technological advances, as well as investment, which is a neo-classical economics tells us. The United States is a mature economy, which entered a steady, steady rely on technological progress to promote economic growth,adidas honey lo, but for China to catch up with such a country, technological progress on the one hand, on the other hand we can also invest to increase capital increase the capital stock will increase economic growth.
     
    Phoenix Finance: But now is not how private investment?
     
    Yao Yang: government investment.
     
    Phoenix Finance: I thought you said before, is the government intervention and more, do more fields overcapacity. If the government continues to invest, will not aggravate or delay production capacity by clearing process?
     
    Yao Yang: more government investment can cast some infrastructure, not to throw the plant, a few waves before us, first car and photovoltaic, basically every city are engaged in photovoltaics,louboutin pas cher, this surplus was a mess, iron and steel, these are government later .
     
    Now I think the local governments are smarter, these industries with excess I guess they are unlikely to go into, you said they would reinvest the steel industry do? Unlikely, vain obvious earn money. Local government can still improve infrastructure,ferraari occhiali da sole, some local governments will take the money out PPP, and private capital investment went to a part of the so-called new economy, it also can be done.
     
    But I do not maintain that issuers of money to throw Industry,hogan sito ufficiale, issuance of money is supposed to do the infrastructure, improve people's livelihood, or you go to buy the surplus of housing, which is to improve people's livelihood, can be found in these areas, it will not be too distorted economic structure. But it will stimulate consumption and stimulate investment. ,
     
        
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