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    swarovski lunette de soleil do you think the dual adjustment When will it end

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    发表于 2016-12-28 09:48:20 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
    Peking University School of National Development Lu Feng: RMB appreciation trend is not over yet
            
    Lu Feng: RMB appreciation trend is not over one hundred interviews with people's livelihood first a macroscopic
     Number from the public: the people's livelihood Macro
     
    Moderator Zhu Zhenxin, Minsheng Securities Institute of Macroeconomic Team Leader
     
    [Current guests] Lu Feng, of Peking University Institute of National Development (former Peking University's China Center for Economic Research) Professor. Doctor of Economics LEEDS University, UK, Renmin University of China and master degree. Professor Lu Feng went to Harvard University, the Australian National University, a visiting British Institute of Development Studies, School of Economics, he worked in the UK LEEDS University, Department of Economics, Renmin University of China to teach. "China Economic Journal" founding editor.
     
    Core [view]
     
    1, although the Chinese economy is in a double adjustment trough, however, labor productivity in manufacturing is still catching up, the long term trend of real appreciation of the renminbi has not changed. Recent devaluation pressure mainly during the post-crisis period the differentiation between the two countries macroscopic separation step change in short-term.
     
    2, how to deal with long-term real appreciation of the context of the short-term downward pressure, is a new challenge under the capital account liberalization, the RMB exchange rate market and internationalization of the New Era. Stick to the peg, crawling slowly floating, stable and effective exchange rate, pegged to quit several options have advantages and disadvantages, etc., from the short-term situation and forecasts will continue to implement stable and effective exchange rate policy, but from promoting RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization backdrop look toward a more flexible exchange rate regime is difficult to avoid fluctuations in the trend.
     
    3, the dollar has insufficient capacity: In the long term potential economic growth rate down to 2 times, cycle to see the economy is facing a turning point from high to low, weak investment in the real economy, the economy is facing asset prices and CPI inflation. Some conventional macroeconomic indicators improved significantly, although the United States, however, quit the zero interest rate policy for more mission accomplished but not passive upset.
     
    4, the Chinese economy in recent years to expand the adjustment period has now entered the final stage of the clean-up inventory imbalances, such as the supply side can effectively implement structural reforms, economic growth is expected after the first period Thirteen Five high-low, and ultimately building a moderately prosperous economic goals.
     
    A decade ago, you have written a dozen articles on the exchange rate series of papers analyzing the different stages of the evolution of the RMB exchange rate reform era characteristics and laws of the new century RMB real exchange rate appreciation trend Cause study focused on the perspective from the Balassa effect. However, there is downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate, how do you see the current RMB singing empty sound? Years to depreciate the RMB will not last? Whether the trend of RMB appreciation has ended?
     
    Professor Lu: 2015 RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 6%, observed on the open economy international comparative perspective,chaussures louboutin, the depreciation is not particularly large. The yuan against the euro and the yen in the past has been volatile in 2015, slightly more devaluation is not an exception. From the real effective exchange rate, the RMB in 2015 remained virtually stable. However, the recent exchange rate movements on behalf of the RMB against the US more than 20 years the most significant depreciation of the exchange rate depreciation in China's central bank intervention and massive bailout massive foreign exchange reserves to reduce the occurrence of background, while China's economic growth and increasing downward pressure on the stock market has experienced greater volatility. Thus the evolution of the foreign exchange market is bound to lead to widespread concern, China's macroeconomic policy now become a hot issue. Recent domestic and international market sell-off occurred RMB market is the fact that short-term downward pressure on the exchange rate is an objective fact,chaussures louboutin, however, whether the yuan long-term appreciation trend has been reversed, the decision will have to observe the basic elements of a country's exchange rate if the long-term trend change.
     
    Assessment of a country's long-term exchange rate movements, at least two aspects investigated. Directly observable variable long-term performance of a country's current account, you can observe a further national tradable sector relative to productivity growth. Our current account over the past ten years has maintained a larger surplus surplus, the current account surplus before the crisis to GDP ratio had reached double digits. Post-crisis surplus accounted for a substantial decline in the proportion of GDP surplus in recent years, generally stable at around 2% level. By structural conditions coupled with short-term economic impact of the characteristics of last year, the surplus reached $ 3,000 high again, the surplus share of GDP rose to 2.8%. From the current account long-term performance, long-term depreciation of RMB conditions do not exist, but there is still prompt further modest appreciation of the future space.
     
    More meaningful long-term impact of the manufacturing labor productivity growth relative to the state of the exchange rate. Theory and experience, in economic catch-up phase of the country's long-term currency movements can Balassa-Samuelson effect analysis framework for the discussions. B-S based effects, long-term exchange rate decision variables are tradable sector productivity growth relative to the double. With a relatively simple method that can be used as manufacturing or industrial business sector representatives to observe the long-term trend of the exchange rate by the relative labor productivity in manufacturing. The indicators are pro-cyclical characteristics, however, estimated by the residual method than the TFP (total factor productivity) to a number of handy.
     
    Subject to special conditions the background of institutional transformation, China's labor productivity growth in manufacturing from the mid-century began to force, and the current value of the index is about 5 times at the beginning of the 21st century. From 2000--2011 years the situation in 2008, the index recorded a negative growth rate, 12-year average growth rate of about 14%, the productivity of the tradable sector to catch up with the fastest time. My concern is twofold adjustment of economic hard times in recent years, how, to that end we've updated the index time series the latest data showed that 2012--2014 Nian by the potential decline in economic growth and long-term factors to adjust the dual role of deepening the short-term factors, the index average annual growth rate dropped to 6.4%. Compared with developed countries, China and the US manufacturing labor productivity comparison in 2000--14 years average annual growth of 8.06% relative, 2012 - May 2014. This relative growth indicators were down 6.1%, 4.2%, 5.8%. Comparison of OECD countries as a whole in 2000--14 years relative to the average annual growth of 9.1%, 2012 - May 2014, respectively,adidas jeremy scott, relative to the growth rate dropped to 7.6%, 2.6%, 6.0%. Visible recent years, China Social sector productivity catch rate phased down, but its relative catching trend has not changed. Based on China's economy to catch up with dual adjustment system analysis, reasonable to assume that through structural reforms and other policy adjustments trough out double and usher in the next boom cycle after growth in China is expected to emerge a new round of trade sector productivity catch-up process speed,scarpe hogan outlet, push RMB re-entered the track real exchange rate appreciation.
     
     
     
     The reason of the tradable sector productivity remains sustained ability to catch up, by our stage of economic development, the environment and other institutional endowments, and many other fundamental state condition is determined. (1) China's economic development at this stage still has made a comparative advantage,moncler donna, will help promote the rapid advancement of technology and the industrial structure and by drawing on innovation. (2) by having our economic system reform and improve the ability to improve the efficiency of economic activities, through deepening reform and expanding opening release system innovation bonus. (3) has a huge advantage of economies of scale, is conducive to integrated applications like high-speed rail technology and key equipment supply chain capabilities and improvement. (4) based on population size, market expansion and economic history of the structural characteristics of native entrepreneurs have better resources in a market economy environment at different levels of entrepreneurs groups continue to emerge and grow.
     
    Although China's economy is experiencing double difficult adjustment, especially in the northern provinces and a number of resource-intensive industry is facing severe difficulties for many years, but if you go to objectively observe the actual state of the local and grass-roots economy, the situation is not really bleak no less than a day. I personally last year, some provinces limited research study from the situation in recent years, the local economy and the dual adjustment micro level there are still many bright spots difficult times, especially in the southeast coastal area of private economic activity, companies appear in the traditional advantage of the lack of industrial growth of the manufacturing sector to expand case, few individual upgrading of industrial technology to catch up the more successful companies are approaching the forefront of world industry. These represent our tradable sector productivity gains direction.
     
    The basic reason is that the currency fluctuation between the two countries relative changes in the macroeconomic situation. In other words, in the Chinese economy to catch up with long-term promising backdrop, the two countries with the separation macroeconomic cycle differentiation introduced over the short term lower pressure. On the one hand, the continued implementation of the US financial crisis, the extraordinary monetary stimulus policies to promote US economic recovery is vulnerable to the current period up to the point, concerns about inflationary pressures and asset bubbles in the American decision-makers had to withdraw up to eight years and start raising interest rate policy interest rates are often derived more substantial appreciation of the dollar. Thus the US dollar as its surface had not obtained as the reaction of the US economy really Return of the King, in fact,chaussure louboutin femme, to some extent, reflects the economic operation of the subsequent crisis unsatisfactory overall difficulties and tangled.
     
    On the other hand, large-scale implementation of China's 4 trillion economic stimulus plan, to promote rapid economic recovery in the V-lag quickly lead to significant inflationary imbalances, quit in 2011 after years of stimulus into the adjustment phase, currently in cyclical response and resolve and structural contradictions of the final stage. The US economy is in the cycle highs and interest rates are more likely to enter in a new round of policy action under downward track, China's economy is in its final stages in recent years, double adjustment, is the accumulation of forging bottom rise and greet the new round of economic growth cycle inner strength, the recent devaluation of the renminbi pressure forming the above-mentioned period and affect the comparison of the characteristics of the market expected product. We need to face the short-term downward pressure on the exchange rate and calm and pragmatic response, however, that the real appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has peaked perspective remains to be explored and tested.
     
    Second,parajumpers stockholm, from a one-time devaluation of last year to early this year stress test, the central bank has been attempting to manage expectations and guidance, but the market seems to be in the expected depreciation of negative feedback being. How you should look at the current situation? What should take appropriate policy response?
     
    Professor Lu: Responding to exchange rate depreciation is indeed a real problem. Before evaluating and identifying specific policy options, I think maybe you can explore and clear exchange rate policy options following principles or target dimensions, seeks to clarify the relationship between the different options involve variables.
     
    First, the exchange rate policy choice should facilitate and promote the steady growth of domestic structural reforms. Foreign policy should be subordinate domestic policy objectives. From decision-making to policy since the end of the statement, this year's economic policy guidelines stated goal is to focus on the economy through structural reforms and structural adjustment period to seek a breakthrough, while the use of financial, monetary and other macroeconomic policy tools to moderate increase in aggregate demand in order to stabilize short-term economic increase. Exchange Rate Policies above macroeconomic policies will generate direct and indirect impact.
     
    For example, devaluation or exchange rate stability through foreign trade will have an impact on the real economy and investment in the pipeline. In general, the other conditions to the timing of the exchange rate depreciation rate constant comparison should help increase exports and expand demand, our country is facing due to the current economic downward pressure on the outlet pressure should relieve positive significance, and extent of impact is through empirical observation Study to be judged. On the other hand, the depreciation of the exchange rate may have an adverse effect on the inflow of foreign capital at the margin, the impact should be structured investment characteristics, namely long-term investment compared to short-term capital inflows on may be much smaller.
     
    China is a big country,escarpin louboutin, to discuss exchange rates when selecting perhaps more concern is the impact of domestic monetary policy freedom of choice. Viewed from the impossible trinity common sense, if the objective existence of ambient stick peg exchange rate depreciation pressure, the use of monetary policy tools will inevitably have different degrees constrained role. We need to discuss this issue and the real results of the equation the specific economic environment appropriate to distinguish between proper and reasonable use of the Theoretical Analysis Model provided but not so overly dogmatic and apply. Corner impossible triangle and state textbook abstract model derived different conclusions, the major powers have realistic macroeconomic issues, more often than not there is no monetary policy, or there is not a problem, but rather whether the use of policy instruments to bring significant issues that limit .
     
    Recent media reports from departments such as the deployment of monetary liquidity working conference to disclose information during the Spring Festival, the stable exchange rate target has been considered a real impact on whether it should reduce the RRR. Also, according to media reports, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee member Huang Yiping said the central bank may cut the deposit reserve when needed, but using this tool is constrained by a number of factors, such as the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and domestic monetary policy easing may result in new devaluation pressure. Personally, I think his objective is to observe and analyze pertinent. Visible in the analysis logically, should perhaps consider appropriate and flexible monetary policy to stick to a consistent principle of exchange rate stability and the target is the central economic work conference determined whether and to maintain adequate liquidity and reasonable and moderate growth in total social financing monetary policy objectives there is some tension .
     
    Second, the exchange rate policy should be conducive to safeguarding China in recent years to promote financial reform and opening results. Financial reform and opening up is an important part of China's reform and opening decades. After entering the new century, especially after the crisis, how to deal with promoting financial reform and opening face different policy choices, especially in how to deal with exchange rate and other domestic financial reform, capital account expanding opening up, promoting the internationalization of the RMB Relations 2011 Post - 2012 academic there have been intensive discussion and debate, I was also published after the financial reform should be within, the priority to promote domestic financial reform and other articles.
     
    Recalling the recent evolution of the actual situation,chaussures louboutin, the two aspects of reform and opening substantially simultaneously advance, especially by means of the SDR basket last year to apply for both reform and opening up full speed, both inside and outside formed substantially simultaneously advance stage and break the pattern. Although it is impossible perfection, decision-making to seize the favorable opportunity to join the SDR push financial reform and opening up, not only in line with changes in the internal laws of political economy and institutional reform transformation kinetics, and along the way with the echoes to create new strategic fulcrum for the development of China's economic opening and open a new situation. The new deal with the current situation in the capital account liberalization rhythm and inspection steps may need to do some practical adjustments in the CNH market internationalization of the RMB and other related fields can also be appropriate to improve management, but these improvements should obviously be adjusted in favor to maintain and consolidate the achievements in recent years to promote financial reform and opening premise, considering the flip deepen financial reform and opening unfinished process needs.
     
    Third, exchange rate policy options should facilitate the release of a positive external influences. Open strengthen international coordination of macroeconomic policies of economic globalization is deepening the objective needs, G-20 is to establish a dialogue mechanism to adapt to emerging economies to catch up with changes in the global economic landscape important symbol for enhanced international macroeconomic policy coordination open this year coincides with China becoming G- 20 summit presidency, exchange rate policy options clearly need to focus on the demands of the country's major trading partners, especially considering the international macroeconomic policy coordination factor between the major powers.
     
    In dealing with external influences should also be clear, that is the evolution of the objective situation, including the introduction of external devaluation pressure background, no matter what our policy will be taken to deal with some kind of external influence, and that relevant countries will bring an international economic such adjustment requirements. Born in the exchange rate changes in the internal and external environment, exchange rate policy choices also have a spillover effect one way or another, in fact, is the era of globalization of economic interdependence title proper meaning. China is one of the largest economies in volume, assuming that China's exchange rate policy options no external influence, or require external influence completely neutral, is clearly unrealistic. Level of analysis can do is to clarify the ramifications of different options direction, as well as international coordination Hennessy possible ways of eliminating defects.
     
    At least two effects can be determined. One is the external impact of exchange rate adjustment under fixed-price select number. Assumed that selection of stable exchange rate policy, the need to maintain a fixed exchange rate holdings of securities denominated in foreign currency assets, such operations means that China's central bank balance sheets shrink and reduce the financial needs of the international market assets, which will have the role to enhance the rate of return at the margin. Recent reports of foreign agencies on that subject to be analyzed, although sensational and exaggerated factors exist, and even includes the Chinese reserve assets decreased incorrect accusations, however, under pressure to devalue the environment reaction trend will stick to the peg derived quantity adjustment and influence, at least logically it exists.
     
    Another is to select the next number of floating exchange rate depreciation adjustment effects. Exchange rate depreciation as a relative price changes on export trade to produce the number of regulatory role, if such action would force small complex structures submerged in a variety of economic factors in imperceptible, but if it is possible for larger effort, including the US have a significant impact can be recognized by trading partners. By the early years of the global economy dominated the super old normal American economy, while strong and inflationary pressures in the regular phase of the economic cycle hike domestic economic growth generally, then China as a trading partner the United States, even to conform to the US dollar and the devaluation of the yuan and US demand marginal on demand some kind of diversion effect, the United States are more likely to see it as a mechanism for macroeconomic rebalancing link but not necessarily particularly mind. Very different from the current situation, the Fed is now in the US economic recovery is weak background reluctantly start raising interest rates, the situation is changing so that the United States can not calmly look at the reaction of the US dollar trading partner changes in line with market rules. Early January our economic dialogue group interviews important economic sector officials in Washington, the other party is no longer simply ask the Chinese exchange rate market, but in unison to ensure that the requirements of China's exchange rate policy orderly transition towards market-oriented (orderly transition), more worried about the RMB to adapt to market requirements devaluation, it reflects the above-mentioned changes in the economic trend and the mentality of the American decision.
     
    Vertical, will have a choice of external influences, in particular, to clarify the policy options considered out of ideas. For example, policy choices must be based on respect for the law based on the market mechanism can not depart from the laws violate Open Macroeconomics good wishes. To be considered fair and reasonable rights and responsibilities on the other, the US dollar and other major currencies accompanying bailout should not be accepted under the background of the RMB exchange rate stability constant external requirements. In addition to the depreciation of the exchange rate have a sense of balance, it is unacceptable devaluation of the interests of the trading partners deliberately hurt misjudgment under any circumstances.
     
    Third, the current exchange rate policy point of view about a lot of recommendations, many researchers strongly oppose the exchange rate depreciation, in particular, that the more substantial devaluation is the worst, that the stability of the RMB exchange rate both altruistic and self-interest. There are arguments on appeal should get rid of the fear of devaluation, by deepening the reform of the depreciation of the exchange rate devaluation, the exchange rate policy that you think the next step should be how to choose?
     
    Exchange rate policy itself is nothing more than stick between the peg and the peg exit options, combined with the recent foreign exchange market situation and the evolution of policy, generally have four options.
     
    The first is a reaction trend, stick to the currency peg. Since China has huge foreign exchange reserves, the fundamentals are better conditions, coupled with a modest capital controls may be introduced, if at all costs this policy may also choose to go on. Of course, the existence of this choice obvious question: Floating reform orientation and inconsistent; foreign exchange reserves to reduce excessive adverse impact; if mainly by capital controls to deal with short-term changes in market pressure, the operation may appear excessive deformation and movement, is not conducive to maintaining financial reform and opening up existing achievements; also the formation of an independent monetary policy constraints. Although researchers have no shortage of confidence in the market from the perspective of stability argument advocating such views,police discografia, however, see a larger overall expense may be undesirable.
     
    The second showed their walk, crawl floating small steps. Last year, roughly corresponding to the beginning of August to the end of the case. The main element allows the upper and lower annual depreciation of 5 percent a year to prepare reduced by about $ 500 billion, intended to increase capital controls, prepared to accept certain restrictions on domestic monetary policy derived strengthen international coordination to relieve downward pressure, etc., constitute this option . Adopt such an approach should be able to respond to the current situation. However, this choice depreciation pressure while releasing portion, may well be induced by the depreciation of the new expected devaluation, which will be a period of continued downward pressure intermittent shocks. This option is therefore not conducive to straighten out the relationship between the internal and external policy of open economy, capital controls and additional efforts to enhance its operational requirements, we will also introduce tension implicit policy.
     
    The third change is the anchor currency, the exchange rate stable and effective. From major international currencies pegged to a basket of currencies pegged to the dollar, from bilateral currency stable steering effective exchange rate stable. This policy choice is generally beginning in mid-December last year announced CFETS since. This is of positive significance to the path delinked from the dollar exchange rate on the future institutional framework beneficial exploration. However, if you want this new method as a new means to reach a stable exchange rate, there may still be seen at the question of the test. In the long term, if the yuan remains to be explained and predicted Balassa effect real appreciation trend,calvin klein occhiali da sole, the effective exchange rate remains flexible enough to meet this requirement, so there may be a conflict with a stable basket exchange rate target, or the need to stabilize the exchange rate connotation do enough broad definition. More important now is that the new system itself, it is difficult to completely avoid significant appreciation pressure of RMB against the US dollar bilateral exchange rate of the Singapore dollar in recent years, continued to implement a similar system to achieve more than 15% against the US dollar depreciation of empirical facts it is an example. It should be noted that, due to the floating crawl afterwards will give birth within a certain effective exchange rate Evolution track, so that the second, three choices in the short term the actual results may be difficult to distinguish clearly.
     
    The fourth is to deepen reform, quit anchoring system. The RMB exchange rate to a greater extent decided by the market mechanism, and gradually dilute the exchange rate stability control target, compare to a clean transition to the floating exchange rate system. At the same time the introduction of appropriate international practice acceptable capital control measures and strengthen international communication and coordination, streamlining internal and external macro-economic relationship that steady growth and advancing structural reforms to create a favorable policy environment, maintaining the consolidation in recent years, financial reform and opening up and internationalization of the RMB to results that the next round of economic boom cycle comes into an international financial and monetary powers to actively create conditions. However, like other several options, select the deepening of reform implementation in the short term there are difficulties and risks.
     
    In short, stick to the peg, crawling slowly floating,ceinture hermes, stable and effective exchange rate, pegged to quit several options and other advantages and disadvantages of sight. From the short-term situation and forecasting perspective, the central bank will continue to implement and manage the floating exchange rate stable and effective strategies, however, from promoting RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization background look, the trend towards a more flexible exchange rate regime fluctuations may be difficult to avoid.
     
    Fourth, the market worried that if the central bank to relax the tolerance scale, the continued depreciation of the yuan may be, it will not give Chinese economy systemic risk similar to that of the Asian financial crisis?
     
    Professor Lu: First, to correctly understand the root causes of the last century, the East Asian economic crisis, although the first direct the performance of capital flight and exchange rate depreciation is characterized by a currency crisis, and then extended to the financial system evolved into a financial crisis and the development of the economic crisis, but its essence is rooted in high growth stage domestic macroeconomic imbalances and a fixed exchange rate and capital account over the earlier open combined action. The last century, 70--80 years, the East Asian emerging economies to take advantage of intra-product division is characterized by contemporary economic globalization expand favorable conditions for the implementation of open-door policy to undertake the transfer of industries in developed countries get opportunities for development and made remarkable achievements,hogan nuova collezione, however, macroeconomic policy design and open deviation also for the subsequent crisis foreshadowed. Pre-crisis period, subject to government industrial regulation policy and the expansion of the macro policies, a lot of resources to serve the government attaches importance to projects and sectors, to promote rapid economic growth and the introduction of a large number of short-term capital under the capital account open background, derived property and stock prices soared and assets bubble risk. Under a fixed exchange rate, the current account deficit increased by short-term capital account surplus financing, the necessary conditions to maintain said Imbalance important expansion of the open run macroeconomic imbalances constituted. With excessive imbalances unsustainable development stage, a lot of capital flight and international payments imbalances lead to the collapse of the exchange rate, the formation of a currency crisis - financial crisis - economic crisis chain. Thus the depreciation of the exchange rate is not the root cause of the East Asian crisis, but the crisis triggers.
     
    Due to institutional and other aspects of the state-owned enterprises, the Chinese economy was structural problems including massive bad debts, but fortunately not yet fully liberalized capital account, depending on the system barriers of capital controls may be implemented structural reforms of domestic policy of restructuring the banking system, while implementing SOE reform, the WTO and the expansion of domestic demand, successfully coped with the impact that the financial crisis. At present, China is still the economic conditions and the year of the Asian crisis the country still has substantial differences. Long-term fundamentals are still catching up basis, the current account remains the largest surplus, capital account liberalization of investment securities despite an unprecedented increase, however, individual foreign investment is still significant regulatory, and China has the world's largest foreign exchange reserves and national savings, as well as a more than one trillion US dollars of net international balance of payments position for the prevention and control of financial risks crisis provide favorable conditions. Our adjustment policies implemented in recent years partially released previously accumulated financial risks, in addition to China's implementation of a managed floating exchange rate system, after all, it is also different from the fixed exchange rate system more rigid, which helps to regulate the imbalance and to avoid the risk of release. In conclusion, we should certainly pay attention to lessons learned from the Asian financial crisis and other emerging economies economies, however, from the current situation we have the possibility of the occurrence of similar crises should be minimal.
     
    Fifth, you mentioned that there are sides of one coin, the other side of the RMB against the US dollar depreciation is a general appreciation of the US dollar. US dollar exchange rate is less direct regulation,moncler piumini, changes in the dollar is mainly determined by the long-term economic growth and short-term macroeconomic fundamentals conditions, we need to understand to understand the dollar devaluation. You just go to China and the US United States participated in the annual coordination dialogue, based on your observations, then the dollar and US economic trends How?
     
    Professor Lu: US has advanced economies unique combination of economic advantages and economic strength, giving it a stronger institutional features of market innovation and the ability to adjust the strain, the United States has enjoyed major international currency issuing country unique, and therefore, the United States at the forefront of the global economy status in the foreseeable future will not be substantially changed. China and the US economist year I participated last month in the State of New York hospital after a dialogue organized visit to Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley, working conditions for young people in particularly impressive, the United States could create a dominate innovation corporate culture, from one side of the refraction of the US economy have microscopic energy. But the US economic fundamentals of these conditions persist, it can be understood as the dollar under special circumstances at this stage of the sharp appreciation of the general context, however, the determining factor is obviously not the US dollar and the specific reasons.
     
    The reason is that the United States launched specific monetary amount QE and then raise interest rates further,giubbotti peuterey nuovo, start exiting zero interest rate policy continued for eight years, thus restricting their analysis to raise interest rates is the key to understanding the evolution of the macroeconomic situation, the dollar outlook. From this perspective, although the United States of certain conventional macroeconomic indicators improved or strengthened, such as the unemployment rate recently dropped to 5% of the upper and lower asset prices higher bit run, but the overall macroeconomic picture is not optimistic.
     
    Data show that the potential economic growth of the US economy corresponding to full employment dropped from the postwar era to the 4 century 80-- 90 years after age 3,peuterey donna nuovo, a further decline into the new century 2 era. Although unemployment indicators improved, but labor force participation rate continued to decline. Bank of America is 5 more than one trillion US dollars in cash reserves and, before the crisis is ten times the size of the display while the overall lack of liquidity ample opportunities for profitable investment, fixed investment in 2014 and not in 2006 before the crisis. In the short term the US economy still faces asset prices and CPI inflation. 2011--2015 five-year US economic growth of about 2% and the core CPI remained at around 2% is not low. In extraordinary loose monetary policy to stimulate the promotion,hogan scarpe prezzo, a record share price, prices returned to pre-crisis bubble period a considerable level, low bond yields and bond markets on an unprecedented scale unprecedented expansion, rising asset prices, although the wealth effect generated by stimulating economic growth in the United States short-term effects, but also lead to new risks for the US economy to grow accumulation concerns. Against this background the United States to start raising interest rates, the US economy is not really strong.
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     Why is the US economic cycle transition face particular tangled situation? I think this should be China and other emerging economies to catch up with the big era of global change angle background pattern to be understood. The above observations suggest that US interest rates to support macroeconomic road to recovery may be bumpy, suggesting interest rates may not be the dollar as the Fed is expected to end so smoothly, and even US dollar interest rates may have to run out of steam (livelihood Macro Note: In our interview with Lu teacher shortly after,chopard occhiali da sole, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates plunged, the implied rate hike in 2016 the number fell to 3-4 times from the previous 0).
     
    Sixth, China's economy is in the final stages of the dual adjustment, do you think the dual adjustment When will it end? Thirteen Five of China's economic growth during the show what situation?
     
    Professor Lu: This is an adjustment period in the history of the longest time. Resolve the overcapacity has entered the final stage, a few years ago mainly inhibit increment this year to promote structural reforms to clean up zombie companies mainly moderately reduce inventory. If you can effectively promote macroeconomic bottom this year it should be possible to create conditions for the steady rise next year. From the current dual adjustment situation, Thirteen Five growth are more likely to exhibit low to high before, the final should be able to achieve an average annual growth rate of 6.5 per cent target.
     
    Of course, the final stage of adjustment must be the most difficult and risky phase. I have said on another occasion, the decision-making determined to advance structural reforms, means that once again China's economy is facing a crucial choice that stage, that we said eighteen after climbing over the ridge, ton output capacity really to put into practice . It seems this year is tackling the dual adjustment may also be in the throes of, well it would be a breakthrough and ultimately to years of success.
     
    (Note: According to the New Year's livelihood macro team gathered from Lu teacher interview, the teacher himself Review Lu authorized the release)
     
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